The Week That Hit Different
March 9-14, 2026
Oil Hits $100: The Iran War Drags On
Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel this week as the U.S.-Iran conflict intensified. Iran’s new Supreme Leader declared the Strait of Hormuz should “remain shut”, and the IEA announced a historic 400 million barrel emergency oil reserve release — but prices kept climbing anyway.
Why markets reacted
No Hormuz = no oil flow = inflation risk goes up and rate cuts go further away
Gas prices hit $3.54/gallon in the U.S: up 21% in a single month
Airlines, shipping, and manufacturers all face increasing fuel costs which will lower profits
Market impact
Energy and defense stocks were the only winners all week
Airlines continued their freefall
Over 72% of U.S. stocks declined on Thursday alone
S&P 500 hit its lowest level since November
Good Inflation Data, Bad Timing
February CPI came in at 2.4% annually, which was expected. Normally that’s great news. This week, nobody cared.
Why markets reacted
With oil at $100, traders know March and April inflation data will be much worse, making February’s data irrelevant
Oracle was the week’s bright spot, surging 10% after crushing earnings with $17.19B in revenue because of strong AI cloud demand
Market impact
Everytime the market pushed up, it would go back down as investors sold cautiously
Adobe dropped 5% after its CEO announced his departure
The stagflation fear (rising prices + slowing growth) is cancelling out any positive data
Three Straight Weeks of Losses
All three major indexes hit their lowest levels since November. The S&P 500 is now 5% below its recent high with a 44.7% chance the Fed doesn’t cut rates at all in 2026, via CME FedWatch.
Why markets reacted
War, oil shock, weak jobs, and a frozen Fed… all hitting at once
Even bonds fell alongside stocks this week. Normally, when the market is uncertain, investors buy bonds instead of stocks. It is not the case this week
Q4 GDP came in weaker than expected, adding recession risk on top of inflation fears
Market impact
Tech and growth stocks remain the most exposed: they need low rates to justify their valuations
Defense and energy stocks continue to outperform
Looking Ahead
In the next week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting March 18–19 and Nvidia’s Conference March 16–19 as they are the next big market drivers.
Keep reading for more student friendly insights on what is changing the market.
See you next week,
— WallStreetWagon
great work!!
Great insights!