Markets Finally Caught a Breath, For Now

March 30-April 3, 2026

Ceasefire Rumors Send Stocks on a Wild Ride

The Strait of Hormuz.

The biggest story this week wasn't an earnings report, it was a single Trump social media post. On Wednesday, Trump claimed Iran had "asked for a ceasefire," sending stocks surging. Iran immediately called it "false and baseless." Then on Thursday, Iran and Oman announced a deal to potentially reopen the Strait of Hormuz with tolls on passing ships, giving markets just enough hope to close the week green. Q1 2026 officially ended Tuesday as the worst quarter since Q1 2022.

Why markets reacted

• Any sign of peace = oil prices could fall = inflation cools = Fed can cut rates = stocks go up

• Markets have been so beaten down that even the possibility of a ceasefire was enough to trigger a massive bounce

• Q1 ended with Energy up 39%, Tech down 13%, and Oil up 70%

Market impact

• S&P 500 had its best single day since May 2025 on Tuesday, up 2.91%

• Airlines, cruise lines, and tech stocks led the bounce

• Oil pulled back slightly from its highs but stayed above $100, the Hormuz deal is still not confirmed

• The week closed as the first green week since the Iran war began

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Jobs Bounce Back — But Nobody Could Trade It

The March jobs report dropped Friday morning, but markets were closed for Good Friday. The U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, nearly three times what economists expected after February’s shocking loss of 92,000. Unemployment ticked down to 4.3% and wage growth slowed, which is exactly what the Fed wants to see.

Why markets reacted

• A strong jobs number means the economy isn’t falling apart despite war, oil shocks, and sticky inflation

• Slower wage growth eases inflation pressure, which makes rate cuts slightly more plausible

• The catch: markets couldn’t react until Monday, creating a weekend of uncertainty

Market impact

• Bond yields jumped immediately: the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.35%

• The Fed is still expected to keep rates. The report was good, but not good enough to change the full-year outlook

• Monday’s open will be the first real market reaction. Watch for major changes

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Oil Stays Above $100 and Gas Hits $4 at the Pump

Despite the ceasefire hopes, Brent crude ended the week at $112 a barrel… still the highest since 2022. Trump’s Wednesday night speech made clear the war would last “at least another month,” sending oil spiking again. Gas prices at the pump hit a national average of $4.06 per gallon, the first time above $4 since 2022, squeezing everyday consumers across the country.

Why markets reacted

• $4 gas is an economic burden for most as it directly reduces consumer spending on everything else

• With oil still above $100, inflation isn’t going anywhere, which keeps the Fed frozen

• The Hormuz “toll deal” between Iran and Oman gave markets hope, but oil traders weren’t convinced, therefore prices barely moved

Market impact

• Consumer stocks (retail, restaurants, travel) remain under pressure

• Energy stocks are up 41% year-to-date, being the only sector with major gains in 2026

• Airlines face a brutal squeeze: fuel costs are sky-high while passengers are cutting back on travel

• The April 6 diplomatic deadline between the U.S. and Iran is the single most important date for markets right now

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Looking Ahead,

All eyes are on April 6: the diplomatic deadline Trump set for Iran. A deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz could send stocks soaring and oil crashing. No deal means more war, more oil above $100, and more pain for markets heading into earnings season.

Thank you,

— WallStreetWagon