The War is Over. Kind of.

After more than 100 days of war, the US and Iran finally agreed to a deal on Sunday night. Trump posted that it was “now complete.” Pakistan’s prime minister confirmed a signing ceremony would happen Friday in Geneva. When markets opened Monday morning, everything was different. The deal included a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the removal of the US naval blockade, and the start of nuclear talks.

Why markets reacted

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil highway. About one-fifth of all the oil and gas on the planet passes through it. Since February, it had been shut down because of the war, and that sent energy prices through the roof. The deal didn’t fix everything overnight, experts said it could take months to clear the backlog of ships and get production running again, but just the news that the war was ending was enough to send markets flying. Fear was leaving the market in real time.

Market impact

• S&P 500 surged when markets opened

• Nasdaq futures climbed +1.8% Monday morning

• Brent crude (global oil price) fell about 5% to $82.80 a barrel

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 5.5% in a single day

  note: Iran unexpectedly closed the Strait on 6/20, Saturday morning, with Iranian state media accusing the US of ‘breaking the ceasefire’.

  ---

Nobody Expected This From the Fed

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates where they were at 3.50% to 3.75%. That part was expected. What nobody saw coming was what they said next. The Fed released its dot plot, which is basically a chart showing where Fed officials think interest rates are headed. It showed that nine out of eighteen Fed members now think rates need to go UP before the end of 2026. The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, also released the shortest Fed statement in recent news, just 130 words, with zero guidance on what comes next.

Why markets reacted

Investors came into this week thinking the Fed was done raising rates, maybe even about to cut them. The dot plot flipped that on its head. The Fed is now saying inflation is still too high (they raised their inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3.6% for the year), the job market is still strong, and the Iran war made energy prices worse. When the Fed signals it might raise rates, borrowing gets more expensive, company profits shrink, and stocks fall. It was actually the worst single Fed meeting performance for the S&P 500 under any new chair since 1994.

Market impact

• S&P 500 dropped sharply after the decision

• Nasdaq fell hard on Wednesday

• Treasury yields rose as traders priced in the chance of a hike

• Fed’s 2026 inflation forecast raised to 3.6%, up from 2.7% in March

  ---

Tech Stocks Save the Week

The day after the Fed shock, chip stocks led a comeback. The Nasdaq recovered nearly 2% on Thursday alone. Friday was Juneteenth, a federal holiday, so markets were closed and Thursday was the final trading day of the week. By the time it was over, the S&P 500 actually finished the week up about 0.93%. The Iran rally on Monday, the Fed selloff on Wednesday, and the tech recovery on Thursday basically cancelled each other out.

Why markets reacted

The chip and AI stocks kept bouncing back because investors believe tech companies can grow their earnings fast enough to survive higher interest rates. Even if borrowing costs go up, companies like Nvidia are still printing money from AI spending, and that keeps investors buying. The Geneva signing ceremony for the Iran deal on Friday also helped calm things down heading into the weekend.

Market impact

• Nasdaq finished the week +1.91%

• S&P 500 finished the week +0.93%

• Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) gained +2.12%

• VIX (the fear index) sat at 16.88, still a little elevated

  ---

Looking Ahead,

Three stories defined this week and none of them are finished. The Iran deal was always fragile and it already proved it: the Strait just closed again. This could mean gas prices come right back. The Fed has nine members ready to hike rates the second inflation stops cooperating. And tech stocks are the only thing holding the market together while both of those play out. Watch oil, watch the next inflation print, and watch whether Nvidia and friends can keep carrying the weight.

— WallStreetWagon

The U.S-China Trade War Gets a Timeout

In the biggest trade development of 2026, the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff pause after negotiations in Geneva. The U.S. dropped its tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China dropped its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. Both sides agreed to keep talking. It’s not the deal you think, but it was the first real de-escalation since the trade war exploded in February.

Why markets reacted

• 145% tariffs were basically a full trade embargo: American companies couldn’t afford to import from China, and Chinese companies couldn’t sell to the U.S

• The pause meant supply chains could breathe again. Retailers, manufacturers, and tech companies that depend on Chinese components got immediate relief

• Investor confidence spiked because the worst-case scenario, a complete decoupling of the world’s two largest economies, was taken off the table… at least temporarily

• It also signaled that both sides still want to negotiate, which markets had been desperate to see

Market impact

• S&P 500 surged over 3% in a single day: one of its best days of the year

• Nasdaq jumped over 4% as tech stocks, most exposed to China supply chains, led the rally

• The dollar strengthened as confidence in U.S. assets partially recovered

• Retailers like Nike, Apple, and consumer goods companies responded positively

• Oil ticked up on improved global trade

  ---

Trump Can’t Control the Fed

The Federal Reserve met this week and held interest rates steady, keeping the federal funds rate unchanged. What mattered more than the decision itself was the tone. Fed Chair Jerome Powell was straight-forward and confident, pushing back on political pressure from the White House and reaffirming the Fed’s independence. After weeks of Trump publicly attacking him, Powell’s calm demeanor was itself a market signal.

Why markets reacted

• Markets had been pricing in chaos because a Fed chair under political pressure making erratic decisions

• Powell holding firm and speaking clearly reassured investors that the Fed is still operating independently, which is essential for market stability

• He acknowledged the tariff uncertainty but said the Fed would wait for actual economic data before cutting rates, living by no panic, no politics

• That steadiness, combined with the China trade pause, gave investors two reasons to buy in the same week

Market impact

• Bond markets stabilized, Treasury yields pulled back slightly as panic diminished

• Financial stocks rose, with investors less uncertain

• Rate-sensitive sectors like real estate got a modest boost

• The VIX fear index dropped sharply from its recent highs: markets are visibly calm

Tariffs, War, and Somehow More Jobs

The April jobs report landed Friday and surprised almost everyone. The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected despite the tariff chaos, trade uncertainty, and geopolitical noise that dominated the previous weeks. The unemployment rate held steady. It wasn’t a blowout number, but after February’s shocking job losses it was enough to shift the narrative from recession fear to some optimism.

Why markets reacted

• A stronger than expected jobs report means consumers still have income, which means they’re still spending… and consumer spending is about 70% of the U.S. economy

• It also reduced immediate pressure on the Fed to cut rates as an emergency measure, giving them room to be patient

• Combined with the China trade pause and Powell’s steady hand, the jobs report completed a rare triangle of good news in a single week

• Investors who had been sitting on cash waiting for clarity finally had three reasons to get back in

Market impact

• Markets closed the week strongly green across the board

• The S&P 500 posted its best weekly gain since November

• Consumer discretionary and retail stocks outperformed

• Gold pulled back slightly as safe-haven demand eased: a sign investors felt less scared

• The week ended with Wall Street cautiously optimistic heading into May earnings season

Looking Ahead,

After weeks of chaos, Fed attacks, tariff explosions, a dollar in freefall, May 4-8 was the first week in months where multiple things went right at the same time. The China pause, a steady Fed, and a solid jobs report don’t solve every problem. Tariffs are still at 30%, the Iran situation hasn’t resolved, and the 90-day clock is already ticking. But for one week, markets finally took a breather.

— WallStreetWagon

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You ignored Duo on Monday. And Tuesday. You told yourself you'd do it tomorrow. Tomorrow became last week. Last week became last month. Somewhere between your 47th ignored notification and your broken one week streak, Duolingo made $150 million. From people exactly like you.

How a Free App Prints Money

Duolingo runs on a freemium model. The app is completely free: every language, lesson, and level. No textbook or classroom. It’s just you, a cartoon owl, and an uncomfortable amount of guilt when you skip a day.

If you want to get rid of the ads and protect Duo’s feelings, you pay $7 a month for Super Duolingo. That’s the entire pitch.

On the surface it sounds like a terrible business. Give everything away for free, hope enough people pay $7. Except 500 million people have downloaded it, and Duolingo is worth over $7 billion. So something is clearly working.

The Problem Nobody Talks About

Here’s the uncomfortable math: less than 8% of Duolingo’s users ever pay for anything.

That means 92% of people, hundreds of millions of users, open the app, do their lessons, rack up streaks, ignore Duo for three months, come back, lose the streak, repeat… and never spend a dollar. For most companies, that would be a crisis. For Duolingo, it’s the entire strategy.

The real problem isn’t getting people to pay. It’s getting people to stay. The average user quits within two weeks. Languages are hard. Progress is slow. Life gets in the way. Duo sends a notification. You ignore it. He gets increasingly unhinged about it.

That churn problem almost broke the company, until they figured out that guilt is actually an incredibly powerful retention tool.

The Owl Was Never an Accident

At some point Duolingo’s marketing team made a decision that changed everything: they stopped selling language learning and started selling Duo himself.

The passive aggressive notifications. The memes. The TikTok account where Duo stalks celebrities, threatens users, and many more odd videos. None of that was random. It was a calculated bet that if people had a personal relationship with the mascot, even a slightly threatening one, they’d keep coming back.

It worked. Duolingo’s TikTok grew to over 10 million followers. News outlets covered the owl like a celebrity. The marketing went viral on its own, replacing an entire ad budget with free attention. Every meme about Duo guilting you into doing your Spanish lesson was free advertising worth millions.

The lesson: Duolingo doesn’t sell language learning. It sells a feeling: the slight anxiety of disappointing a cartoon bird. And that feeling keeps 500 million people coming back.

Where The Real Money Hides

Super Duolingo subscriptions are the main engine, but the most interesting revenue stream is one most users have never heard of: the Duolingo English Test.

Universities and employers worldwide accept it as proof of English proficiency, a direct competitor, but cheaper, faster, and taken from your laptop at home. At $59 per test, it’s a high margin, scalable product that has nothing to do with cartoon owls or Spanish lessons. It’s a serious B2B business quietly growing inside a app teenagers use to avoid doing their homework.

That combination with consumer subscriptions plus institutional testing is what makes Duolingo’s model genuinely smart. One side keeps the brand alive. The other side makes serious money.

What They’re Actually Building

Duolingo isn’t a language app. It’s a habit machine.

Every design decision: the streaks, the XP, the leaderboards, the daily reminders, the increasingly dramatic owl… All that exists to make opening Duolingo feel as automatic as checking Instagram. Not because they think you’ll become fluent. Because the longer they keep you in the routine, the more likely you eventually become one of the 8% who pays.

And once you pay, you stay. Paid subscribers churn at a fraction of the rate of free users. The whole free experience is an extremely long, extremely patient funnel designed to turn habit into revenue.

They’re not teaching you French. They’re teaching you to need them.

Duo Is Still Waiting

You’ve been ignoring him for three weeks. Duo’s fine. He’s worth $7 billion.

The next time that notification pops up, you’ll know exactly why he’s so desperate for you to come back. Your streak is his revenue. Your guilt is his product. And your $7 a month, if he ever convinces you, is exactly what he’s been after all along.

That’s Behind the Brand. Let us know which company we should break down next!

— WallStreetWagon

James and Olivier graduate from LFSF on the same day. Same high school, same city, same first job at the local In-N-Out making $19 an hour. A year in, they both decide it's time. No more Uber charges eating their paychecks. They're getting a car.

They walk into the same dealership, two weeks apart. Same model. Same year. Same color. A 2023 white Ford F150. The sticker price is identical. The down payment is identical. They both get approved.

Olivier drives off paying $310 a month.

James drives off paying $475 a month.

Same car. Same income. Same dealership. $165 more every single month. It’s not because James negotiated badly, not because of a hidden fee, not because of anything that happened in that dealership. Because of a number neither of them had ever talked about, sitting quietly in a database somewhere, that one of them had been building without knowing it and the other had been ignoring completely.

That number is your credit score.

What Is a Credit Score?

A credit score is a three-digit number, typically between 300 and 850, that summarizes how reliably you’ve handled borrowed money in the past. The higher the number, the more trustworthy you look to lenders. The more trustworthy you look, the less they charge you to borrow. In their eyes, you’re a safer bet.

Think of it like a reputation score, except instead of tracking whether you’re a good friend or a hard worker, it tracks one thing only: do you pay people back on time?

Every time you borrow money and repay it (ex: a credit card, a phone plan, a student loan), it gets recorded. Do it consistently and your score climbs. Miss payments, max out cards, or never borrow at all, and your score either drops or simply doesn’t exist.

That last part is the one that catches most people off guard.

The Invisible Problem

Here’s what nobody tells you at 18: doing nothing is not the same as doing everything right.

If you’ve never had a credit card, never taken out a loan, never financed anything: your credit score isn’t zero. It doesn’t exist. And to a bank, a landlord, or a car dealership, no history looks almost as risky as bad history. You’re an unknown. And unknowns get charged more.

James had never borrowed money. Never missed a payment because there were no payments to miss. Responsible by every normal definition. But the system had no evidence of that, so it charged James for the uncertainty.

Olivier had opened a student credit card freshman year, used it for gas and groceries, and paid it off every single month. Never carried a balance. Never paid a dollar in interest. Just built a quiet track record over 12 months that said: this person pays what they owe.

That track record was worth $165 a month at the dealership. Over a five-year loan, that’s almost $10,000.

What Actually Goes Into It

Your credit score is calculated from five main factors:

• Payment history: the biggest one. Do you pay on time, every time? This alone is 35% of your score.

• Credit utilization: how much of your available credit you’re actually using. Maxing out a card hurts you even if you pay it off. Stay under 30%.

• Length of credit history: how long your accounts have been open. Older is better, which is why starting early matters more than most people think.

• New inquiries: every time you apply for credit, it gets checked. Too many applications in a short window looks desperate.

• Credit mix: having different types of credit (a card, a loan) shows you can handle both.

  ---

The Flip Side

Just like interest, a credit score isn’t only something that costs you. Used right, it saves you.

A score above 750 can get you a mortgage rate that saves you hundreds per month compared to someone at 620… on the exact same house! It can be the difference between getting approved for an apartment in a city where landlords check everything, or getting turned down before you even tour it. Some employers run credit checks before hiring, especially in finance.

The same number that quietly cost James $10,000 on a car can quietly save someone else $40,000 over the life of a home loan.

Back to the Dealership

Olivier didn’t know any of this was happening in real time. Didn’t walk in thinking about credit scores. Just happened to start building one early, without realizing how much it would matter later.

James left the dealership with the same car, same job, same life… and a lesson that cost $165 a month to learn.

The good news is that credit scores aren’t permanent. They move. Pay on time, keep balances low, let time do its thing and the number climbs. James’s score will look completely different in two years.

But two years is two years.

The best time to start building credit is before you need it. A student card with a $500 limit, used once a month for something you were already going to buy, paid off in full. That’s it! Boring, quiet, and worth thousands before you’re 25.

Your credit score is already being written. The only question is how you write it.

— WallStreetWagon

Trump Attacks the Fed, Markets Panic

President Trump publicly urged for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to be fired this week, directly demanding the Fed cut interest rates immediately. He called Powell “a major loser” and said his termination “cannot come fast enough.” Markets had never seen a sitting president so openly threaten the independence of the central bank.

Why markets reacted

• The Federal Reserve’s independence is one of the foundations of trust in U.S. financial markets. Investors around the world count on the Fed making decisions based on economics, not politics

• If the president can fire the Fed chair and install someone who will cut rates on command, it means interest rates could be set for political reasons, not economic ones

• This destroys credibility, and foreign investors started pulling money out of U.S. assets entirely, sending the dollar sharply lower

• Stocks, bonds, and the dollar all fell simultaneously. This is a rare and alarming sign that investors are losing confidence in U.S. markets as a whole

Market impact

• The dollar hit its lowest level in three years

• U.S. Treasury bonds sold off as foreign investors increased U.S. debt

• Gold surged to record highs above $3,300 as investors fled to safety

• S&P 500 fell sharply, erasing most of 2026’s impressive gains

• By Friday, the White House walked it back slightly. Trump said he had “no intention” of firing Powell, and markets partially recovered

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Tariff Chaos Impacts Corporate Earnings

Major U.S. companies reported Q1 2026 earnings this week and the tariff impact was impossible to ignore. Airlines, retailers, and consumer goods were impacted by surging import costs from Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. United Airlines withdrew its full-year profit forecast entirely. Several companies said they simply couldn’t predict costs far enough ahead to give investors reliable numbers.

Why markets reacted

• The people running these businesses don’t know what’s coming

• Higher import costs either get passed to consumers (inflation) or absorbed by companies (lower profits)… either way it’s bad for stocks

• China retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, hitting agriculture and manufacturing hard

• Supply chains that were already stressed from the Iran conflict earlier in the year were now being repriced from scratch

Market impact

• Airlines fell 5-8% on the week

• Retail, apparel, and electronic stocks underperformed badly

• Companies with purely domestic revenue held up better

• The earnings season set a worrying tone: the tariff war is no longer just a threat, it’s showing up directly in corporate profits

  ---

The Dollar is Breaking Down

The U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low this week. It dropped against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc simultaneously. Normally when stocks fall, the dollar strengthens because investors buy U.S. assets for safety. This week the opposite happened: stocks fell AND the dollar fell. Foreign investors were selling everything American.

Why markets reacted

• A weakening dollar signals that global investors are losing confidence in the U.S. as the world’s safe haven. It is a status the U.S. has held since World War II

• The combination of Fed independence threats, tariff chaos, and geopolitical instability made U.S. assets look less reliable than they have in decades

• A weaker dollar makes imports more expensive, adding another layer of inflation pressure on top of the tariffs

• Gold, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen, traditional safe havens, all increased as money moved out of dollars

Market impact

• Gold hit an all-time high above $3,300

• The euro surged against the dollar

• Foreign central banks started selling their U.S. bonds, pushing prices down and borrowing costs up

• By Friday, a partial Trump retreat on Powell helped stabilize things, but the dollar’s credibility damage is not repaired in a single statement

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Looking Ahead,

This isn't over. The confidence that foreign investors lost in U.S. assets this week doesn't come back with one statement from the White House. Watch the dollar, watch bond yields, and watch whether any country starts seriously diversifying away from U.S. debt. That's the slow-moving story underneath all the noise.

Join us and stay tuned for next week’s market brief.

What happens next will determine whether this was a warning, or the beginning of something worse.

— WallStreetWagon

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Trump Pauses the War in Iran, Stocks Explode

Just before his own Tuesday deadline, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was suspending bombing Iran for two weeks after receiving a 10-point peace proposal from Tehran. The announcement triggered one of the biggest single-day market rallies of 2026. Oil dropped over 16% on Wednesday alone. This drop was the single biggest day fall since April 2020. By Friday, VP JD Vance was heading to Islamabad to lead peace talks over the weekend.

Why markets reacted

• A ceasefire = possible Hormuz reopening = oil falls = inflation cools = rate cuts back in play

• Market prices had been increasing over six weeks of war. Any change triggers a massive release of pressure, aka a fall of prices

• The Dow turned positive for 2026 for the first time since the war began

Market impact

• Dow surged 1,325 points on Wednesday: its best single day since April 2025

• S&P 500 up over 3% for the week having its best week since November

• Airlines, travel, and consumer stocks bounced sharply

• Brent crude dropped 11% on the week, its largest weekly fall in nearly 10 months

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Inflation jumped. Blame the War

Friday's CPI report showed inflation jumped 0.9% in March, driven almost entirely by the war-driven spikes in gas prices, which rose 18% in a single month.

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures how much everyday prices like gas, groceries, and rent have changed compared to a year ago. When it rises, it means life is getting more expensive.

Annual inflation hit 3.3%. But core CPI, which considers food and energy, came in at just 0.2% below expectations. The data shows that this part of the market hasn’t reacted yet to the shock of the lack of oil supply.

Why markets reacted

• The inflation number looked bad on paper, but WallStreet wasn’t surprised. Investors had been preparing for incoming data, as oil and gas prices rose heavily. Lower rates were awaiting.

• Core CPI staying low meant no wage-price spiral, which means the Fed doesn’t need to raise rates

• The risk going forward: the longer oil stays above $90, the more likely energy inflation affects everyday prices

Market impact

• Stocks were less devastating than expected which was relieving news

• The Fed remains on hold: no rate cuts, but no increases either

• CPI jumped from 2.4% to 3.3% in a single month. This might not sound like alot, however it is a huge bump, the biggest since 2022

• Quarter 1 bank earnings kick off next week with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. It will be the first real look at how corporate America survived the war

The Strait Is Still Closed

This Ceasefire Has a Huge Problem

Despite the ceasefire deal, the Strait of Hormuz remains nearly shut. Reuters reported that tanker traffic through the waterway was still below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday. Iran is demanding ships obtain permits and pay tolls to pass through. however most shipping companies and insurers won’t accept. Meanwhile, Israel continued striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, which Iran called a violation of the ceasefire, putting the entire deal at risk.

Why markets reacted

• A ceasefire that doesn’t reopen the Strait doesn’t actually fix the oil supply problem as prices stayed extremely high

• Insurance costs for tankers trying to pass remain sky-high, keeping shipments stalled even without active combat

• Americans are feeling the pain of $4+ gas and war anxiety, which threatens consumer spending that drives 70% of the U.S. economy

Market impact

• Oil climbed back above $100 on Thursday as markets realized the Strait was still effectively closed

• Shipping and airline stocks gave back some of their ceasefire gains

• The weekend peace talks in Pakistan are now the single most important market event. A real deal that reopens Hormuz sends oil crashing and stocks surging; a breakdown reverses everything

  • (Pakistan is hosting the peace talk as it has equal relationships with both countries)

Looking ahead:

All eyes on the Pakistan peace talks this weekend between the U.S. and Iran. If a deal is struck that actually reopens the Strait of Hormuz, expect oil to collapse toward $70–80 and markets to surge into Q1 earnings season. If talks fail, oil is at continued risk of supply.

Thank you!

— WallStreetWagon

The economy isn’t just numbers on a screen. It shows up in a place that affects everyone: jobs.

When the economy is thriving, companies are hiring. When it slows down, hiring stops and jobs become harder to find.

This is what economists track through something called unemployment.

What is unemployment?

Unemployment is the percentage of people who are actively looking for a job but cannot find one.

It is one of the most important indicators of how the economy is doing.

• Low unemployment means a strong economy

• High unemployment indicates a weaker economy

Why do unemployment rates change?

Unemployment rises and falls depending on the economy.

When the economy is growing:

• Businesses expand

• Demand increases

• Companies hire more

  • Unemployment goes down

However, when the economy slows:

• People spend less money

• Businesses earns less

• Hiring slows or stops

  • Unemployment rates go up

The 3 types of unemployment

Not all unemployment is the same:

• Frictional: people between jobs, this is normal

• Structural: workers do not have the right skills

• Cyclical: caused by a slowing economy

The most important one for understanding the economy is cyclical unemployment.

Why it matters

Jobs drive the entire economy.

If people have jobs:

• They earn money

• They spend money

• Businesses grow

If people lose jobs:

• Spending drops

• Businesses struggle

• The economy slows

  ---

Why investors watch it

Job data is released regularly and markets react quickly.

• Strong job market means the economy is solid but inflation can rise

• Weak job market signals a slowdown or possible recession

The job market is one of the clearest signals of where the economy is heading.

A real-world example

Unemployment can be seen in the recent wave of tech layoffs. Companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta cut thousands of employees after interest rates rose and economic growth slowed.

This shows that unemployment isn’t random: it’s closely linked to the economy. When businesses expect less growth, they hire less or cut jobs, increasing unemployment.

— WallStreetWagon

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Ceasefire Rumors Send Stocks on a Wild Ride

The biggest story this week wasn't an earnings report, it was a single Trump social media post. On Wednesday, Trump claimed Iran had "asked for a ceasefire," sending stocks surging. Iran immediately called it "false and baseless." Then on Thursday, Iran and Oman announced a deal to potentially reopen the Strait of Hormuz with tolls on passing ships, giving markets just enough hope to close the week green. Q1 2026 officially ended Tuesday as the worst quarter since Q1 2022.

Why markets reacted

• Any sign of peace = oil prices could fall = inflation cools = Fed can cut rates = stocks go up

• Markets have been so beaten down that even the possibility of a ceasefire was enough to trigger a massive bounce

• Q1 ended with Energy up 39%, Tech down 13%, and Oil up 70%

Market impact

• S&P 500 had its best single day since May 2025 on Tuesday, up 2.91%

• Airlines, cruise lines, and tech stocks led the bounce

• Oil pulled back slightly from its highs but stayed above $100, the Hormuz deal is still not confirmed

• The week closed as the first green week since the Iran war began

  ---

Jobs Bounce Back — But Nobody Could Trade It

The March jobs report dropped Friday morning, but markets were closed for Good Friday. The U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, nearly three times what economists expected after February’s shocking loss of 92,000. Unemployment ticked down to 4.3% and wage growth slowed, which is exactly what the Fed wants to see.

Why markets reacted

• A strong jobs number means the economy isn’t falling apart despite war, oil shocks, and sticky inflation

• Slower wage growth eases inflation pressure, which makes rate cuts slightly more plausible

• The catch: markets couldn’t react until Monday, creating a weekend of uncertainty

Market impact

• Bond yields jumped immediately: the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.35%

• The Fed is still expected to keep rates. The report was good, but not good enough to change the full-year outlook

• Monday’s open will be the first real market reaction. Watch for major changes

  ---

Oil Stays Above $100 and Gas Hits $4 at the Pump

Despite the ceasefire hopes, Brent crude ended the week at $112 a barrel… still the highest since 2022. Trump’s Wednesday night speech made clear the war would last “at least another month,” sending oil spiking again. Gas prices at the pump hit a national average of $4.06 per gallon, the first time above $4 since 2022, squeezing everyday consumers across the country.

Why markets reacted

• $4 gas is an economic burden for most as it directly reduces consumer spending on everything else

• With oil still above $100, inflation isn’t going anywhere, which keeps the Fed frozen

• The Hormuz “toll deal” between Iran and Oman gave markets hope, but oil traders weren’t convinced, therefore prices barely moved

Market impact

• Consumer stocks (retail, restaurants, travel) remain under pressure

• Energy stocks are up 41% year-to-date, being the only sector with major gains in 2026

• Airlines face a brutal squeeze: fuel costs are sky-high while passengers are cutting back on travel

• The April 6 diplomatic deadline between the U.S. and Iran is the single most important date for markets right now

  ---

Looking Ahead,

All eyes are on April 6: the diplomatic deadline Trump set for Iran. A deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz could send stocks soaring and oil crashing. No deal means more war, more oil above $100, and more pain for markets heading into earnings season.

Thank you,

— WallStreetWagon

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All $0.

No catch. No limits. Just free.

Sounds perfect, right?

It wouldn’t work.

The reason is simple: scarcity.

Scarcity

Scarcity is the fundamental economic problem where limited resources are insufficient to satisfy unlimited human wants.

There isn’t unlimited food, unlimited clothes, or unlimited products. If everything were free, people would take as much as they want, as fast as they can.

Imagine sneakers were free. Stores wouldn’t last a day before running out.

Not because people need more sneakers, but because when something is free, there’s no reason to limit how much you take.

This is what economists call scarcity: resources are limited, but human wants are unlimited.

Prices exist to manage that problem. Without them, there’s no system to control how much people take or how goods are distributed.

Real-World Example

Even if it sounds like a joke, we’ve seen this happen in real life.

During COVID, when people rushed to buy essentials like toilet paper and food, shelves emptied quickly. There wasn’t suddenly less supply, but demand increased as people took more than they needed.

Now imagine that, but for everything.

Why ‘Free’ Doesn’t Solve Problems

Making something free doesn’t create more of it.

The same limited amount of goods still exists, but now more people want them because there is no cost.

Scarcity doesn’t disappear when prices go to zero.

There are still only so many products available, but demand increases because there is no reason to limit how much you take.

This makes the problem worse.

The Real Solution

In economics, solving scarcity isn’t about making things free.

It’s about finding ways to allocate limited resources efficiently so that as many people as possible can access them.

Nothing is truly free.

And if it ever is… it’s probably an April Fools joke.

— WallStreetWagon

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They’re not. And that’s exactly what makes Spotify’s business model so interesting.

The Basic Setup

Spotify operates on a ‘freemium’ model. Free users get access to the entire music library with ads. Premium users pay around $11/month for ad-free listening, offline downloads, and better audio quality. Simple enough on the surface.

But here’s where it gets interesting.

Ads Are Almost Irrelevant

Ad-related profits sit at just 6.4% (Growthx). This means that for every dollar Spotify makes from ads, it barely keeps six cents after costs. Compare that to premium subscriptions, which carry dramatically higher margins. Ads exist mainly as a conversion tool. In reality, it’s a slightly annoying experience designed to push you toward paying $11/month, not as a serious revenue driver.

The Royalty Problem

Here’s the core problem in Spotify’s business: it pays record labels close to 52% of revenue generated by each stream, and over 85% of music streamed belongs to just four labels: Sony, Universal, Warner, and Merlin. That’s four companies with enormous leverage over Spotify’s cost structure, and Spotify can’t really do anything about it.

This is why Spotify spent years barely profitable despite hundreds of millions of users. Revenue was growing, but so were royalty payments. The proportions were brutal.

So How Did They Fix It?

Two moves: podcasts and price increases.

Spotify went on a podcast acquisition spree. The streaming company bought The Ringer, Gimlet Media, and most famously signing Joe Rogan, all because podcasts carry far higher margins than music. No major label to pay. Podcast content costs a fraction of music royalties and keeps users on the platform longer.

Then in 2023, Spotify raised prices across most markets for the first time in years. By 2024, average revenue per user climbed to €4.62, the highest it had been in five years.

The result? Spotify posted its first annual net profit in 2024 of €1.1 billion after years of losses.

The Bigger Picture

What Spotify is really building is an audio platform, not a music app. Music gets you in the door. Podcasts, audiobooks, and eventually video keep you there, at margins that actually make sense.

The bet is that if Spotify owns enough of your listening time across enough content categories, it becomes too embedded in your daily routine to leave. That’s the real advantage, not the music catalog that everyone has.

Next time that ad interrupts your playlist, remember: Spotify doesn’t actually want your ad revenue. It wants your $11.

That's our first ‘Behind the Brand’. Drop a comment and tell us which company we should break down next!

— WallstreetWagon

Oil Hits $100: The Iran War Drags On

Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel this week as the U.S.-Iran conflict intensified. Iran’s new Supreme Leader declared the Strait of Hormuz should “remain shut”, and the IEA announced a historic 400 million barrel emergency oil reserve release — but prices kept climbing anyway.

Why markets reacted

• No Hormuz = no oil flow = inflation risk goes up and rate cuts go further away

• Gas prices hit $3.54/gallon in the U.S: up 21% in a single month

• Airlines, shipping, and manufacturers all face increasing fuel costs which will lower profits

Market impact

• Energy and defense stocks were the only winners all week

• Airlines continued their freefall

• Over 72% of U.S. stocks declined on Thursday alone

• S&P 500 hit its lowest level since November

Good Inflation Data, Bad Timing

February CPI came in at 2.4% annually, which was expected. Normally that’s great news. This week, nobody cared.

Why markets reacted

• With oil at $100, traders know March and April inflation data will be much worse, making February’s data irrelevant

• Oracle was the week’s bright spot, surging 10% after crushing earnings with $17.19B in revenue because of strong AI cloud demand

Market impact

• Everytime the market pushed up, it would go back down as investors sold cautiously

• Adobe dropped 5% after its CEO announced his departure

• The stagflation fear (rising prices + slowing growth) is cancelling out any positive data

Three Straight Weeks of Losses

All three major indexes hit their lowest levels since November. The S&P 500 is now 5% below its recent high with a 44.7% chance the Fed doesn’t cut rates at all in 2026, via CME FedWatch.

Why markets reacted

• War, oil shock, weak jobs, and a frozen Fed… all hitting at once

• Even bonds fell alongside stocks this week. Normally, when the market is uncertain, investors buy bonds instead of stocks. It is not the case this week

• Q4 GDP came in weaker than expected, adding recession risk on top of inflation fears

Market impact

• Tech and growth stocks remain the most exposed: they need low rates to justify their valuations

• Defense and energy stocks continue to outperform

  ---

Looking Ahead

In the next week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting March 18–19 and Nvidia’s Conference March 16–19 as they are the next big market drivers.

Keep reading for more student friendly insights on what is changing the market.

See you next week,

— WallStreetWagon

Do you ever look at a price tag and think, why does this cost this much?

The answer, almost always, comes down to two forces: supply and demand.

Demand: Why Price Changes Who Buys

Let’s use pizza as our example. If a pizza costs $100, almost no one is going to buy one. It’s just not worth it. But if the price drops to $30, suddenly a lot more people are interested. It feels like a reasonable deal. Drop it further to $10, and now almost everyone is on board. This is the core idea behind demand: the lower the price, the higher the demand, meaning more and more customers are willing to buy the product as it becomes cheaper.

Think about your own decisions as a consumer. There are probably things you’d buy if they were cheaper, but don’t because the price feels too high. That exact calculation, happening across millions of people simultaneously, is what shapes the demand for any product.

We can represent demand visually as a curve on a graph, with price on the vertical axis and quantity on the horizontal. Because demand rises as price falls, the demand curve slopes downward from left to right.

Supply: Why Price Changes Who Sells

Pizzas don’t appear out of thin air: someone has to make them. And just like customers respond to price, so do the suppliers producing the product.

If a pizza sells for $100, every supplier wants to make as many as possible. The profit margin is enormous, and it’s absolutely worth their time and resources. But when the price drops to $30, suppliers have far less incentive to produce. Their costs, ingredients, labor, energy, stay roughly the same, but their revenue shrinks. Drop the price low enough, and it’s simply not worth making pizzas at all.

This is the concept of supply: the higher the price, the more of the product suppliers are willing to bring to market. Unlike the demand curve, the supply curve slopes upward. As price rises, the quantity supplied rises with it.

The Equilibrium: Where Supply Meets Demand

So what should a pizza actually cost? This is where it gets interesting.

If the price is set too high, suppliers will produce far more pizzas than customers want to buy. Pizzerias are stuck with unsold inventory such as wasted ingredients, wasted labor, wasted money. If the price is set too low, the opposite happens: customers want more pizzas than suppliers are willing to make, leading to shortages and upset buyers who can’t get what they want.

Somewhere between these two extremes is a price that works for everyone. This is called the equilibrium price: the point where the quantity supplied equals the quantity demanded. Suppliers produce exactly as much as customers want to buy. No surplus, no shortage. The market clears perfectly.

On a graph, we find this by overlaying the supply and demand curves. The equilibrium is simply the point where the two curves intersect.

What Happens When the Curves Shift

The equilibrium isn’t fixed forever, it changes whenever supply or demand shifts due to outside forces.

If demand increases (meaning that at any given price, more people want to buy the product than before), the demand curve shifts to the right. This pushes the equilibrium price upward. Think about what happens to umbrella prices when a storm is forecast: same umbrellas, but suddenly everyone wants one.

If demand decreases: fewer people want the product at any given price, The curve shifts left, pulling prices down.

Supply works the same way. If suppliers can produce more than before at any given price (ex: raw materials got cheaper), the supply curve shifts right, and prices tend to go down. If supply is constrained (ex: a drought; a shortage of materials), the curve shifts left, and prices rise.

These shifts are happening constantly across every market in the world, which is why prices are always moving.

Let’s look at one last example: the food on a plane.

Why does a small bag of chips cost $6 on an airplane, when the same bag costs $1.50 at a gas station?

Consider the supply side first. An airplane is an extremely limited space. The airline can only carry so many snacks on board, and restocking mid-flight isn’t exactly an option. Supply is far lower than in any ordinary retail situation.

Now look at the demand side. Passengers have been sitting for hours. They’re uncomfortable, bored, and hungry. There are no other options available: no grocery store, no restaurant, no vending machine. Their demand for food is unusually high.

Low supply and high demand push the equilibrium price far above what you’d expect in any other context. It’s not the airline being greedy — it’s just the mechanics of supply and demand playing out in an extreme environment.

Same snack. Completely different market conditions. Completely different price.

Beyond the Classroom

Supply and demand isn't just a concept you learn in an economics class and forget. It's the invisible mechanism setting prices everywhere around you, from concert tickets to gas prices to the coffee you bought this morning. Once you understand it, you'll start seeing it everywhere.

— WallstreetWagon

Oil Prices Skyrocket as Iran Conflict Escalates

Oil markets remained volatile this week as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued following the Feb 28 strikes discussed in last week’s brief. Iran warned ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz and several energy companies slowed shipping traffic through the region.

The situation kept energy markets on edge as traders assessed the risk of supply disruptions.

Why markets reacted

About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Even the possibility of disruption can quickly push oil prices higher.

Higher energy prices also increase inflation pressure, which could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Market impact

WTI crude rose above $100 per barrel.
Energy stocks outperformed the general market.

Meanwhile, travel stocks like United and Delta fell around 5–6% as investors worried about higher fuel costs.

Weak Jobs Report Rattles Markets

Friday’s U.S. jobs report surprised investors when the economy lost about 92,000 jobs in February, far worse than expectations for modest growth. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and previous job data was revised lower.

The report suggested the labor market, one of the strongest parts of the economy over the past two years, may be starting to weaken.

Why markets reacted

The labor market is a key signal of a well developing economy. If hiring slows, consumer spending and corporate earnings weaken as well.

At the same time, wages continued rising, raising concerns about stagflation: when economic growth slows but inflation remains high.

Market impact

Stocks fell sharply after the report.

The Dow dropped more than 450 points, while the S&P 500 fell about 1.3% and the Nasdaq around 1.6% during Friday’s session.

Financial and industrial stocks led market losses.

The Federal Reserve Faces a Difficult Decision

With oil prices rising and job growth weakening, the Federal Reserve now faces a complicated situation ahead of its March 18–19 policy meeting.

Markets had been expecting two interest rate cuts in 2026, but recent economic data and higher energy prices are making that outlook less certain.

Why markets reacted

Higher oil prices increase inflation pressure, while a weaker labor market signals slowing economic growth.

This creates a difficult balance for the Fed:
cut rates to support the economy, or keep rates higher to control inflation.

Market impact

Growth and tech stocks, which depend heavily on lower interest rates. led market losses during the week.

Meanwhile, energy and defense stocks were among the few sectors outperforming the broader market.

Looking Ahead,

Markets will focus on upcoming economic data, changes in the Middle East, and updates from the Federal Reserve after its meeting in March.

Stay tuned as the world watches Wall Street’s rough start to March.

— WallStreetWagon

You finally found it. A used Honda Civic, 2018, 60,000 miles, only $8,000. You’ve saved $3,000, more than you’ve ever had at once. A family friend says just take out a loan for the rest. Simple.

You borrow $5,000. Twelve months later, you’ve paid back $5,800.

You never bought anything extra. You never missed a payment. So why did a $5,000 loan cost $800 more?

That’s interest. Once you understand it, you’ll see it hiding inside almost every financial decision you’ll ever make.

What Is Interest Rate?

An interest rate is the cost of borrowing money. When a lender gives you cash today, they charge you a fee for the time their money is in your hands. That fee is interest, calculated through a percentage of what you borrowed.

Think of it like a late fee at the library. The book is free to borrow, but the longer you keep it past its due date, the more you owe. Interest works the same way: the longer you carry a loan, the more it costs you.

It Works Both Ways

Here’s what surprises most people: interest isn’t always something you pay. Sometimes, it’s something you earn.

When you deposit money in a savings account, the bank is essentially borrowing your money — and paying you interest for it. Put $1,000 in an account earning 5% annually, and in a year you have $1,050 without lifting a finger. Leave it for a decade, and thanks to compound interest (earning interest on your interest), that $1,000 becomes over $1,600.

The same compounding effect works in reverse when you’re in debt. Every month you don’t pay off a balance, interest charges stack on top of previous interest charges. What starts small grows fast.

Why Rates Aren’t the Same for Everyone

If you’ve ever wondered why one person gets a 6% loan while someone else gets 18%, it comes down to risk. Lenders are essentially betting that you’ll pay them back. The less confident they are, the more they charge to offset that risk.

A few things shape the rate you’re offered:

• Credit score: a track record of how reliably you’ve repaid past debts. Higher score, lower rate.

• Loan type: mortgages tend to have low rates because the house backs the loan. Credit cards have high rates because there’s nothing to take back if you don’t pay.

• The Federal Reserve: the U.S. central bank sets a benchmark rate that ripples through every bank in the country. When the Fed raises rates to cool inflation (sound familiar?), car loans, student loans, and credit cards all get more expensive.

  

Back to the Civic

That $800 wasn’t a mistake. It was the price of having $5,000 in your hands two years before you would’ve saved it yourself.

Maybe that’s worth it and the car gets you to a job that pays far more than $800. Maybe it’s not, and waiting makes more sense. The point isn’t to avoid borrowing forever. It’s to know exactly what you’re paying before you sign anything.

Interest is one of the most powerful forces in personal finance. It can quietly drain your paycheck for years, or steadily grow your savings while you sleep. Which side it ends up on depends entirely on what you do with it.

— WallstreetWagon

Oil Surges as Middle East Tensions Rise

Military strikes in the Middle East escalated sharply after coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran targeted military and leadership sites. On Feb 28, Iran retaliated with strikes throughout the Middle East, and restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz: a chokepoint for ~20% of global oil trade. The restriction saw about 70% of shipping suspended on March 1st.

Why markets reacted

As previously mentioned, around 20% of global oil trade is transported through the Straight of Hormuz. Iran restricting the flow of trade greatly reduced transport of oil through the passage. As tensions increase and supply of oil being at risk, Crude Oil prices rise.

According to Reuters, analysts warned oil could spike toward $100 per barrel, and prices already jumped about 10% after the strikes.

Market impact

• Crude Oil increased ~2.5%, 7-month highs

• Energy stocks rose

• Airlines and transport stocks fell

• Inflation fears increased

AI Fears and Tariff Risks Weigh on Markets

Markets fell mid-week (Feb 24-26) as investors questioned the sustainability of AI spending and rising global trade tensions.

Despite continued AI spending, investors began questioning whether tech companies can keep up with the massive spending required for AI infrastructure (such as chips, data-centers, energy). Some analysts warned profit margins could shrink if AI costs keep rising faster than revenues.

At the same time, new U.S. tariffs revived fear around companies reliant on global supply chains. These companies, especially tech and manufacturing, could face higher costs and weaker demand.

Why markets reacted

AI has been the main driver of market gains over the past year. If AI is deemed unprofitable in the future, tech stocks could weaken. Tariffs add another layer of worry: higher import costs, supply chain disruption, and weaker global trade.

Market impact

• Nasdaq −1.0% for the week

• S&P 500 −0.4%

• Nvidia −4%

• Software and semiconductor stocks noticeably lower

Stocks slide into March After Weak February

U.S. stocks closed the final week of February (Feb 23–27) lower, extending a month-long loss as the world saw rising geopolitical tensions, oil shocks, and uncertainty around AI growth.

February saw multiple market pullbacks as new risks emerged including Middle East conflict escalation, tariff threats, and concerns tech earnings in the future.

By the end of the month, investors’ confidence weakened heading into March, with traders becoming more cautious ahead of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Why markets reacted

Markets had rolled strongly into early 2026, driven largely by AI optimism.
But February introduced several new risks at once. Shock and fear drove traders to back out of investments, lowering overall market gains.

Looking Ahead

Investors enter March with uncertainty and caution after February’s market changes.

Several developments could drive the market this week. Watch out for:

• Middle East Tensions and Oil Risk

• AI earnings and tech sentiments

• New tariff discussions

Stay tuned as oil, AI, and trade continue to shape markets.

— WallstreetWagon

Almost everywhere you look, prices have risen. Everyday purchases add up faster, and money doesn’t seem to go as far as it once did.

Why does everything feel more expensive?

The main reason behind this price shift is inflation. Inflation is the increase in prices of goods and services across an economy over time, resulting in a decrease in the purchasing power of money. When inflation happens, the same amount of money buys fewer things than before. Price increases like boba tea appear small but add up with many everyday purchases.

However, inflation doesn’t just affect one or two items: it affects the entire economy. Inflation occurs when several industries such as food, transportation, housing, and services experience rising prices. Because so many categories are affected, the cost of living increases as a whole.

So why do prices rise across the whole economy?

• One reason is higher demand. When people have more money to spend, they buy more goods and services. If demand grows faster than supply can keep up, businesses raise prices.

• Another reason is rising costs to operate a business. Companies pay for labor, ingredients, energy, and transportation. When these costs increase for a business, they end up passing them to customers through higher prices.

• Finally, limited supply can heavily increase prices. If there are shortages of material, products, and transportation capacity, fewer goods are available to buy. Therefore, during a period of high demand and restricted supply, prices rise. This happened during global supply chain disruptions (Example: COVID-19), when shipping delays and slow production pushed prices higher.

When prices rise across many industries at once, the purchasing power of money falls. Even if income stays the same, everyday expenses take a majority of the money people can spend. This is why inflation feels like money is less valuable than before.

Back to the boba

The jump from five to nine dollars didn’t happen randomly. It is the result of higher ingredient costs, labor costs, rent, utilities, and general price levels across the economy.

That single menu price represents a broader economic shift. When many businesses face similar cost pressures and demand conditions, prices rise in every industry. That’s inflation in action.

So the next time something feels suddenly expensive, it’s usually not just that one item changing. It’s purchasing power weakening across the economy, revealed through everyday purchases.

— WallstreetWagon

S&P 500: +1%

Nasdaq: +1.5%

Oil (WTI): +6%

Oil Stocks Jump on Iran Tensions

Oil prices jumped 6% between Feb 18-20 after rising US-Iran tensions increased risk of supply disruption. The Straight of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route, was disrupted for the first time since the 1980s. Iran had temporarily closed parts of the strait on Feb 17 for military drills, raising geopolitical tensions in the energy markets.

Why markets reacted

US-Iran tensions increased the risk of oil supply disruption, pushing oil prices higher. Energy companies sell oil at market price, therefore higher crude increases their benefits. As crude rose, investors bought energy stocks anticipating more earnings.

Why it matters

Because so much global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, any disruption in the region can quickly affect inflation and interest rates worldwide.

AI Momentum Lifts Markets

AI tech stocks rose Feb 17–20, led by Nvidia and other megacap firms, as investors positioned ahead of major AI earnings. Tech companies announced increased AI spending in the future and chipmakers, data-center suppliers, and cloud providers outperformed their anticipated earnings. These events pushed the Nasdaq higher during the week.

Why markets reacted

Markets expect tech driven companies to invest more in AI technology, especially in chips, data centers, and cloud computing. Therefore more investment is put into these companies, increasing revenue in the future. As these firms make up a large share of tech indexes, investors buying in AI leaders increased market gains.

Why it matters

AI companies are making up a larger share of major indexes like the S&P 500. Stronger performances in this sector will significantly increase the overall market gains.

Tariffs & Trade Boost Stocks

Stock prices surged on Feb 20 after the Supreme Court struck down major tariffs, removing key trade barriers installed by Trump. The “trafficking” tariffs were created to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States. The ruling reduced import costs for companies reliant on international trade. Lower tariffs improve global trade and are expected to reduce import costs, increasing international commerce.

Why markets reacted

Tariffs raise costs for companies that import materials or sell goods globally. They reduce costs for companies and their consumers. Without them, profits and economic growth thrive. The global companies led market gains following the decision on Friday.

Why it matters

If trade restrictions disintegrate even further, lower costs and stronger global trade can boost the worldwide economy going forward.

Looking Ahead,

Investors will focus on AI earnings, oil price moves, and trade policies.

Another big week for markets, broken down in 5 minutes.

Stay tuned for next week’s market recap!

— The WallstreetWagon Team

Welcome,

If you’ve ever looked at financial news and felt overwhelmed by headlines, complex charts, and tons of numbers: you’re not alone.

Markets move fast. News moves faster. Understanding what actually matters shouldn’t take hours.

That’s why we created WallstreetWagon.

Each week, this newsletter breaks down the biggest financial and economic events. We explain what happened, why it matters, and what it could mean for markets going forward. Clear and concise, it takes just 5 minutes to understand a weeks worth of financial news. Instead of scrolling past market events, you’ll build the confidence to interpret them.

Whether its tech stocks, oil prices, inflation or world events, the goal is simple: to help you connect the news to real market impact.

Written by high school students, this newsletter offers a student-to-student perspective on financial and economic trends.

If you want to understand markets in 5 minutes, you’re in the right place.

— WallstreetWagon